Lovely Weather for a Playoff Together, Week 15

I'm not even going to bother spelling out the playoff scenarios right now. For a few reasons. First, you probably won't be looking here for that information in the first place. Second... well, see reason #1.

With that out of the way, I'm going to gently gloss over the horrific difference between my regular picks last week (12-4) and my spread picks (3-12-1). If I were a betting man, I'd be dead right now. So let's just move on to this week and hope for the best.

Saturday Games
Tampa Bay at NEW ENGLAND (-4.5)
Both teams fighting for a playoff spot, the Bucs needing it a little more than the Pats. Of course, they're up North this week, which makes me lean towards Belichick's gang here. I think this game comes down to who can outcoach whom, and I wouldn't bet on Jon Gruden.
S-U: Pats
Spread: Pats
Final: TB 0 NE 28

Kansas City at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)
The oddsmakers are calling this game dead even on a neutral field. Both teams need this win bad. The Giants are banged up on defense, which has been their strong point all season. They're also missing some key members of their offensive line, which could spell trouble for Eli Manning under pressure. Still, even with Antionio Pierce on the sidelines, I think the Giants can get enough pressure with their front 4 to give the Chiefs' running game troubles. And when the Chiefs don't establish the run, they're about as useful as a tanning salon in South Florida.
S-U: G-Men
Spread: G-Men
Final: KC 17 NYG 27

DENVER at Buffalo (+9)
Yet another QB change in Buffalo, and so far none involving Doug Flutie. This could only spell another Bills loss.
Of course, Denver hasn't exactly been convincing their critics (12 points against Baltimore??). But they need this win, and the Bills just need a summer vacation.
S-U: Denver
Spread: Denver
Final: DEN 28 BUF 17

Sunday's Games
ARIZONA at Houston (+2)
There is just no way in my mind that Houston is losing another heartbreaker. There's no way. They've clearly got the upper hand in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes, and this is their chance to prove to the league that they're not tanking games on purpose. You'd think their defensive coordinator was Jill Kelly the way they've been blowing these games.
(What, you thought I was going to go all season without a porno joke?).
S-U: Houston
Spread: Houston
Final: ARI 19 HOU 30

CAROLINA at New Orleans (+9)
Spread seems high... but then again, the Saints just benched their starting "quarterback," so who knows what they're bringing this week. Screw it, the Panthers need this win.
S-U: Carolina
Spread: Carolina
Final: CAR 27 NO 10

New York Jets at MIAMI (-9)
You know, the Dolphins have a decent shot at .500 this year. In fact, they're still not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet. Anybody see that coming for Nick Saban's troup? Anybody?
Meanwhile, the Jets are performing about as well as Enron stock right now (What's that? That joke is four years old?), and they've just deactivated a hall of fame running back for the remainder of the year.
S-U: Miami
Spread: Miami
Final: NYJ 20 MIA 24

PITTSBURGH at Minnesota (+3)
Would everybody please stop fellating the Vikings for their 6 wins? They beat 5 crappy teams, some barely, and stole a win in New York from some inconceivable combination of luck and... luck. Remember, this is still a team that was predicted to make the Super Bowl, so it's not like they came out of nowhere. Their defense has been playing well and their offense has been what can only be considered as "not that shitty." Give me a break.
The Steelers, meanwhile, need a win to solidify their playoff position, since they still have a decent chance at it. And don't expect it to be a pretty game just because it's in a dome.
S-U: Pitt
Spread: Pitt
Final: PIT 18 MIN 3

San Diego at INDY (-7.5)
You're right, this does seem like a high spread, especially for one team desperate for a win, regardless of the other's quest for history.
If the Chargers lose this one, I wouldn't be surprised to see them audition Phillip Rivers as trade bait for the next two games.
S-U: Indy
Spread: San Diego
Final: SD 26 IND 17

SEATTLE at Tennessee (+7.5)
83 points in the last 2 games? To 3 points allowed? Uhh... yeah, I'm giving this one to the Hawks.
S-U: Seattle
Spread: Seattle
Final: SEA 28 TEN 24

San Fran at JACKSONVILLE (-16)
Call me old fashioned, but I don't see a 16 point spread for a team on its backup quarterback.
S-U: Jax
Spread: SF
Final: SF 9 JAX 10

Philly at ST LOUIS (-3)
Two teams with nothing to lose and nothing to gain. So, in light of actual research, I'm just going with a dome team at home. Why not?
S-U: Rams
Spread: Rams
Final: PHI 17 STL 16

CINCY at Detroit (+8.5)
The Lions this year have had to deal with a quarterback controversy, underachieving receivers and a defense that allows more scores than Paris Hilton on ecstasy. And that was before they fired their head coach. So no, I won't be picking Detroit any more this year.
S-U: Cincy
Spread: Cincy
Final: CIN 41 DET 17

Cleveland at OAKLAND (-3)
I heard people talking about Charlie Frye like he was the steal of his draft, the next Brady. I'm sorry, but which Brady are you talking about here? Greg or Marcia?
S-U: Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland
Final: CLE 9 OAK 7

Dallas at WASHINGTON (-2.5)
While the Skins are technically still in the race for the NFC East, they have a big factor working against them: reality. I tend not to doubt a Bill Parcells team in December when they're clawing for a playoff spot. Call it a hunch.
S-U: Dallas
Spread: Dallas
Final: DAL 7 WAS 35

Atlanta at CHICAGO (-3)
A few factors working here. Cold weather and an injured Vick. I'm sure there's a Vapo-rub joke lurking in there somewhere, but I'm not going down that road. I'm better than that.
S-U: Bears
Spread: Bears
Final: ATL 3 CHI 16

Monday Night
Green Bay at BALTIMORE (-3.5)
I usually call this game the "Monday Night Madness" game because I pick the over/under too, thus making it completely mad, wacky, zany, whatever. But on this night, as both teams combined have only 7 wins, there is nothing mad about it. The temptation for me is to take a clearly aging an unapologetic Brett Favre against a Ravens team that may as well call themselves FedEx the way they've been mailing in games (the Denver game not withstanding).
S-U: Pack
Spread: Pack
Over/Under (33): Tough call but I'm going under here.

2005's Final Thoughts - A Preview

That familiar smell in the air this time of year might just be the stale stench of TV stations broadcasting their year-end reviews around the beginning of December. It permeates everything, from news shows to entertainment reviews. Well, I guess that's not really a lot, but it's still annoying.

It's overdone, it's familiar, it's old, and from year to year you end up hearing the same things. Just how crazy can people be. Wow, how touching and original. Please, inform me more how this Earth is going to hell, how the four horseman are fast upon us, how soon we'll go the way of the Dinosaurs. Please. I just can't get enough. (Author's note: There should be a Font face by now which conveys just how heavy my sarcasm is at this moment. Unfortunately, there isn't. It's tragic, really).

And, as a side note to Comedy Central, from whatever head-in-the-sand management seems to be running half the stuff on that station (since a good portion is legitimately funny, I tend to think they split the job): There are no five words in the English language that will make me NOT want to watch a program than these: With special guest Molly Shannon.

You might as well tell me I'll have four grinning prison inmates performing my next prostate exam.

I'm not going to go into that argument now, but rest assured I will. Someday. I just need the empirical evidence to support my point, and I'm far too lazy on a Friday night to pursue that kind of research.

My point in all of this is that a year-end wrap up is coming. I might try to enlist the help of my two BBFF's, Alison and Scott, for this. But it won't be lame, and it won't involve Molly Shannon. Just so you know.

The Right to Choose, Week 14

Just when you think you've got this league figured out, you hear obtuse statistics like "The Kansas City Chiefs haven't lost a home game in December in over 10 years." What? What the hell does that mean? Does Arrowhead Stadium suddenly change by the calendar? And wouldn't that mean they're also due for a loss?

Whatever.

Chicago at PITTSBURGH (-6.5)
One of these days, people are going to stop calling Bears DB Nathan Vasher "lucky" and start calling him "talented." There's only so many "right place, right time" plays you can make before people realize it's something special.
Of course, you can say the opposite for QB Kyle Orton, whose offensive prowess has diminished to that of a 76 year-old nun.
Chicago could very well pull this game off by limiting Big Ben, who has been suffering lately from a mysterious thumb injury. Most experts think the thing actually fell off around week 7 and has been held on with Elmer's glue since then. Who knows.
S-U: Chicago
Spread: Chicago
Final: CHI 9 PIT 21

Cleveland at CINCINNATI (-13)
I'm shocked at the over/under for this game. It's at around 43. I didn't think, especially after last week's shootout in Pittsburgh, that you could make an over/under less than 126 for any Bengals game the rest of the season, especially against a very sad Browns squad.
S-U: Bengals
Spread: Bengals
Final: CLE 20 CIN 23. Nice call on that over/under, whoever you are.

Houston at TENNESSEE (-6.5)
I'm starting a Dom Capers suicide watch. I'm picking Monday, December 19th, one day after they could upset the Cardinals at home, crushing their chances of landing Reggie Bush as the number 1 draft pick next year. Stay tuned.
S-U: Titans
Spread: Hmm... Houston in a heartbreaker again? Sure.
Final: HOU 10 TEN 13

INDY at Jacksonville (+9)
Even if new Jax QB David Garrard can pull off a lame win against the Browns, he won't stand a chance against the Colts D.
S-U: Colts
Spread: Colts
Final: IND 26 JAX 18. By one stinking point.

NEW ENGLAND at Buffalo (+4)
Um.... errrr.... hold on a sec....
Yup, officially don't care.
S-U: Pats
Spread: Bills
Final: NE 35 BUF 7. Total of 3 rushing yards for Willis McGahee today. Outstanding.

OAKLAND at New York Jets (+3)
Word around the Big Apple is that Kerry Collins could be playing for the Jets next year. If Jets fans followed the Giants for those tumultuous years of Collins' employment, they should be very scared. Very scared. But hey, look on the bright side, that's a #1 draft pick two years in a row.
S-U: Oakland
Spread: Oakland
Final: OAK 10 NYJ 26

St Louis at MINNESOTA (-7)
Don't discount the Rams in a dome. They're apparently agoraphobiacs, so for some reason when they're enclosed they play like they actually deserve to be in professional sports. Unfortunately, that sport may still not be football.
S-U: Vikes
Spread: Vikes
Final: STL 13 MIN 27

Tampa Bay at CAROLINA (-6)
The Bucs always tank this time of year. You think this year will be different? I sure don't.
S-U: Carolina
Spread: Carolina
Final: TB 20 CAR 10

NEW YORK GIANTS at Philly (-9.5)
It's going to be tough for the Giants to scout this team. What are they going to do, go to Central Park and watch the flag football leagues? Because that's where the Eagles are getting their players these days.
S-U: Giants
Spread: Giants
Final: NYG 26 PHI 23

San Fran at SEATTLE (-16.5)
Remember, it wasn't that long ago that the difference in the game was a failed 2-pt conversion by SF in the closing seconds. Don't let that Monday night game go to your heads, Vegas.
S-U: Seattle
Spread: SF
Final: SF 3 SEA 41

WASHINGTON at Arizona (+4.5)
I'm sure all 28 fans in attendance in Sun Devil stadium will be thrilled at this matchup.
S-U: Skins
Spread: Skins
Final: WAS 17 ARI 13

Baltimore at DENVER (-14.5)
Here's a new statistic I'm inventing. Denver hasn't beat the Ravens by less than 15 points on a December 11th game in over 20 years. There, now that that's out there, apparently the Broncos can go play like a real team. Hope last week's KC game was a one-time hiccup.
S-U: Broncos
Spread: Broncos
Final: BAL 10 DEN 12

Kansas City at DALLAS (-3)
Speaking of KC, are there any other weird statistics I should know about. How do they do on the road against a Parcells team in December? Are there domestic abuse claims out there? DUI's?
Here's how I'm picking this game. The Giants beat Denver, the Cowboys beat the Giants, Denver lost to Kansas City, then the Cowboys lost to the Giants so... um... wait... what?
S-U: Dallas
Spread: Dallas
Final: KC 28 DAL 31

Miami at SAN DIEGO (-13.5)
In the battle of the fabulous vacation destinations, I'm going with the Chargers.
S-U: SD
Spread: SD
Final: MIA 23 SD 21

Detroit at GREEN BAY (-6)
Nope, don't care.
S-U: Packers
Spread: Packers
Final: DET 13 GB 16 OT

Monday Night
New Orleans at ATLANTA (-10.5)
Again, I'm not sure how exactly you can call a spread on this Saints team. Or the Falcons. If Atlanta loses, they're out of the playoffs. Period. So don't bet on any upsets, but the spread seems high. But then again, these are the Saints.
By the way, the over/under on this game is the same as the Bengals/Browns game. Does that make sense to you?
S-U: Falcons
Spread: Falcons
Over/Under (43.5): Under

Final Tally
S-U: 12-4, Spread: 3-12-1 (low whistling sound inserted here)
Season
S-U: 58-20, Spread: 40-36-2

Must be my Lucky Week 13

Here are some questions bouncing around my head as we steam past the 3/4 mark of the regular season:
Can we put an end to this Patriots 3-peat talk now?
Is Detroit better or worse off after firing their head coach, and should anybody care?
Are the Texans now the NFL's equivalent of the Washington Generals? I think I saw the St Louis' field goal kicker actually blindfold himself before that game-tying kick last week. And I get this eerie feeling that somebody's whistling Sweet Georgia Brown every time Tory Holt caught a pass..

Oh well, on with the picks.

Atlanta at CAROLINA (-3)
This should worry people in Atlanta: three major professional sports teams are named after birds (I looked it up, a Thrasher is a bird), and the other is a racial epithet. With monikers like that, is it any wonder that the city is in a bit of a championship drought?
Carolina, meanhwhile, has a stubborn situation at running back and from week to week will either look like a playoff contender or a Junior Varsity team from Idaho. And they'll never tell you in advance which squad they're bringing. Remember all that praise heaped on Jake Delhomme when they made their Super Bowl run a few years back? Where are those now?
These are two very even teams, so I'm just going with home field here.
S-U: Carolina
Spread: Carolina
Final: ATL 6 CAR 24

Buffalo at MIAMI (-5.5)
Again, two even teams who surprise you each week with their ability to lose games. Buffalo has been a disaster on the road (0-4), while Miami has been almost as equally bad at home (1-3). I'm not going to pretend to understand these teams, so again I'll just go with home field advantage.
S-U: Miami
Spread: Miami
Final: BUF 23 MIA 24. Wow. Buffalo played a great 3 quarter game today.

Cincy at PITTSBURGH (-3)
Can the Bengals offense get through a tough Steelers D? I think so, especially after seeing Indy pick them apart last week. Of course, that was the Colts at home, so maybe that's not a fair comparison. The cold weather in Pennsylvania this time of year should slow down some offenses, but here's one statistic to look at: In the last two games, Cincy has scored 79 points to Pittsburgh's 20, and they played the same exact teams (Baltimore and Indy). That settles it for me.
S-U: Cincy
Spread: Cincy
Final: CIN 38 PIT 31

Dallas at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)
All out brawl in the Meadowlands this week. Fighting for first place in the NFC East, which nobody would have thought possible three months ago. Let's just hope the Giants home crowd is able to stifle themselves during Eli Manning's cadences this week. 11 false-start penalties? That kind of early movement rivals a high school prom night.
S-U: Giants
Spread: Giants
Final: DAL 10 NYG 17

Green Bay at CHICAGO (-7)
Only 7 here? After beating a playoff team by 10? Um, OK.
S-U: Bears
Spread: Bears
Final: GB 7 CHI 19. See what I mean? 7 points was low.

Houston at BALTIMORE (-8)
It's a tempting upset pick, since Houston did show some signs of life through the first 57 minutes of last week's game. But those last three...
S-U: Baltimore
Spread: Houston
Final: HOU 15 BAL 16. That's 2 in a row for Houston, losing a lead in the last minute of the game.

JACKSONVILLE at Cleveland (+3)
It's scary for the Jaguars to lost Byron Leftwich at this point in the season, but their defense has been doing much of the talking anyway. But Leftwich had an unspoken presence, where he always seemed to be able to do just enough to win. Tough, rugged QB. Possible X-factor looming here in his replacement, David Garrard, but for this week I'm playing it safe and giving the Browns a sneaky home win.
S-U: Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland
Final: JAX 20 CLE 14. Not even the great Charlie Frye could save the Browns.

MINNESOTA at Detroit (+3)
The Vikings have been playing well of late, and another game in a dome shouldn't be any problem against Lil' Joey Harrington and a wretched Lions defense.
S-U: Vikes
Spread: Vikes
Final: MIN 21 DET 16. Seriously, are the Vikings a playoff team now? How scary is that?

TAMPA BAY "at" New Orleans (+3.5)
I don't believe in "home" field advantage for a team that doesn't have a home.
S-U: Bucs
Spread: Bucs
Final: TB 10 NO 3. Kudos to you if you bet the 'Under' in this game.

Tennessee at INDY (-16)
Now this is a spread I can bet against. It's the only fun thing about picking Colts games anymore. Just how high can they make a spread?
S-U: Indy
Spread: Titans
Final: TEN 3 IND 35. Not quite as close as I had thought it would be. Not quite.

ARIZONA at San Francisco (+3)
I almost talked myself into taking the Niners at home this week when I found this little nugget: San Fran is averaging 400 total yards given up on defense this year. Ouch. Oh, plus they're starting Alex Smith, who has been personally coached by Ryan Leaf.
S-U: Zona
Spread: Zona
Final: ARI 17 SF 10

WASHINGTON at St Louis (+3)
Will the Redskins finally win a game? Will Joe Gibbs go back to racing? Will Rocky and Bullwinkle save the world from Boris Badnoff's evil scheme? Find out when we come back.
S-U: Skins
Spread: Skins
Final: WAS 24 STL 9

DENVER at Kansas City (+1)
Spread is closer than I would have thought here. Maybe the oddsmakers bet on Ron Dayne getting more playing time. That, as any Giants fan can tell you, unfailingly leads to disaster. Sure, he'll get you one or two 55-yard runs per year, but the rest of it is uninspired dribbling.
Mike Shanahan should know better than to force the ball to him.
S-U: Denver
Spread: Denver
Final: DEN 27 KC 31. Ron Dayne was Denver's 2nd leading rusher (in carries, not in yards). Shanahan, you asshole. What did I just tell you?

New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND (-10)
This Patriots team? By 10? I don't think so, Scooter.
S-U: Pats
Spread: Jets
Final: NYJ 3 NE 16. I didn't think it was possible but the Jets are worse than I thought.

Oakland at SAN DIEGO (-11.5)
That win last week for Oakland was an abberation. The Bolts are fighting for a playoff spot now, while the Raiders are focused on their Randy Moss jersey sales pool.
S-U: San Diego
Spread: San Diego
Final: OAK 10 SD 34

Monday Night Madness
SEATTLE at Philly (+3.5)
It's too bad, at the beginning of the season this looked like it would have been a good game. Here's some things you can bet on though:
Mentions of Terrell Owens (32)
Mentions of Donovan McNabb (20)
How many times the announcers point out [Philly QB] Mike McMahon's "mobility" or "quickness" (19)
How many times they mention the Giants' false start penalties in Seattle last week (7)
Camera shots of depressed Philly cheerleaders (14)
Mentions of Shaun Alexander's contract (4)
Mentions of Philly's playoff record with TO vs without him (0)
S-U: Seattle
Spread: Seattle
Over/Under (42): Under (damn, another push)
Final: SEA 42 PHI 0

Final Tally:
This week: S-U: 14-2, Spread: 11-5
Season: S-U: 46-16, Spread: 37-24-1

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