Lovely Weather for a Playoff Together, Week 15
I'm not even going to bother spelling out the playoff scenarios right now. For a few reasons. First, you probably won't be looking here for that information in the first place. Second... well, see reason #1.
With that out of the way, I'm going to gently gloss over the horrific difference between my regular picks last week (12-4) and my spread picks (3-12-1). If I were a betting man, I'd be dead right now. So let's just move on to this week and hope for the best.
Saturday Games
Tampa Bay at NEW ENGLAND (-4.5)
Both teams fighting for a playoff spot, the Bucs needing it a little more than the Pats. Of course, they're up North this week, which makes me lean towards Belichick's gang here. I think this game comes down to who can outcoach whom, and I wouldn't bet on Jon Gruden.
S-U: Pats
Spread: Pats
Final: TB 0 NE 28
Kansas City at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)
The oddsmakers are calling this game dead even on a neutral field. Both teams need this win bad. The Giants are banged up on defense, which has been their strong point all season. They're also missing some key members of their offensive line, which could spell trouble for Eli Manning under pressure. Still, even with Antionio Pierce on the sidelines, I think the Giants can get enough pressure with their front 4 to give the Chiefs' running game troubles. And when the Chiefs don't establish the run, they're about as useful as a tanning salon in South Florida.
S-U: G-Men
Spread: G-Men
Final: KC 17 NYG 27
DENVER at Buffalo (+9)
Yet another QB change in Buffalo, and so far none involving Doug Flutie. This could only spell another Bills loss.
Of course, Denver hasn't exactly been convincing their critics (12 points against Baltimore??). But they need this win, and the Bills just need a summer vacation.
S-U: Denver
Spread: Denver
Final: DEN 28 BUF 17
Sunday's Games
ARIZONA at Houston (+2)
There is just no way in my mind that Houston is losing another heartbreaker. There's no way. They've clearly got the upper hand in the Reggie Bush sweepstakes, and this is their chance to prove to the league that they're not tanking games on purpose. You'd think their defensive coordinator was Jill Kelly the way they've been blowing these games.
(What, you thought I was going to go all season without a porno joke?).
S-U: Houston
Spread: Houston
Final: ARI 19 HOU 30
CAROLINA at New Orleans (+9)
Spread seems high... but then again, the Saints just benched their starting "quarterback," so who knows what they're bringing this week. Screw it, the Panthers need this win.
S-U: Carolina
Spread: Carolina
Final: CAR 27 NO 10
New York Jets at MIAMI (-9)
You know, the Dolphins have a decent shot at .500 this year. In fact, they're still not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet. Anybody see that coming for Nick Saban's troup? Anybody?
Meanwhile, the Jets are performing about as well as Enron stock right now (What's that? That joke is four years old?), and they've just deactivated a hall of fame running back for the remainder of the year.
S-U: Miami
Spread: Miami
Final: NYJ 20 MIA 24
PITTSBURGH at Minnesota (+3)
Would everybody please stop fellating the Vikings for their 6 wins? They beat 5 crappy teams, some barely, and stole a win in New York from some inconceivable combination of luck and... luck. Remember, this is still a team that was predicted to make the Super Bowl, so it's not like they came out of nowhere. Their defense has been playing well and their offense has been what can only be considered as "not that shitty." Give me a break.
The Steelers, meanwhile, need a win to solidify their playoff position, since they still have a decent chance at it. And don't expect it to be a pretty game just because it's in a dome.
S-U: Pitt
Spread: Pitt
Final: PIT 18 MIN 3
San Diego at INDY (-7.5)
You're right, this does seem like a high spread, especially for one team desperate for a win, regardless of the other's quest for history.
If the Chargers lose this one, I wouldn't be surprised to see them audition Phillip Rivers as trade bait for the next two games.
S-U: Indy
Spread: San Diego
Final: SD 26 IND 17
SEATTLE at Tennessee (+7.5)
83 points in the last 2 games? To 3 points allowed? Uhh... yeah, I'm giving this one to the Hawks.
S-U: Seattle
Spread: Seattle
Final: SEA 28 TEN 24
San Fran at JACKSONVILLE (-16)
Call me old fashioned, but I don't see a 16 point spread for a team on its backup quarterback.
S-U: Jax
Spread: SF
Final: SF 9 JAX 10
Philly at ST LOUIS (-3)
Two teams with nothing to lose and nothing to gain. So, in light of actual research, I'm just going with a dome team at home. Why not?
S-U: Rams
Spread: Rams
Final: PHI 17 STL 16
CINCY at Detroit (+8.5)
The Lions this year have had to deal with a quarterback controversy, underachieving receivers and a defense that allows more scores than Paris Hilton on ecstasy. And that was before they fired their head coach. So no, I won't be picking Detroit any more this year.
S-U: Cincy
Spread: Cincy
Final: CIN 41 DET 17
Cleveland at OAKLAND (-3)
I heard people talking about Charlie Frye like he was the steal of his draft, the next Brady. I'm sorry, but which Brady are you talking about here? Greg or Marcia?
S-U: Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland
Final: CLE 9 OAK 7
Dallas at WASHINGTON (-2.5)
While the Skins are technically still in the race for the NFC East, they have a big factor working against them: reality. I tend not to doubt a Bill Parcells team in December when they're clawing for a playoff spot. Call it a hunch.
S-U: Dallas
Spread: Dallas
Final: DAL 7 WAS 35
Atlanta at CHICAGO (-3)
A few factors working here. Cold weather and an injured Vick. I'm sure there's a Vapo-rub joke lurking in there somewhere, but I'm not going down that road. I'm better than that.
S-U: Bears
Spread: Bears
Final: ATL 3 CHI 16
Monday Night
Green Bay at BALTIMORE (-3.5)
I usually call this game the "Monday Night Madness" game because I pick the over/under too, thus making it completely mad, wacky, zany, whatever. But on this night, as both teams combined have only 7 wins, there is nothing mad about it. The temptation for me is to take a clearly aging an unapologetic Brett Favre against a Ravens team that may as well call themselves FedEx the way they've been mailing in games (the Denver game not withstanding).
S-U: Pack
Spread: Pack
Over/Under (33): Tough call but I'm going under here.
posted by BJC @ 11:29 PM
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Wishing you and your's a Merry Christmas and the Happiest of New Years!!
Hope you're having a good new year. I just bought some shares of your blog on Blogshares. It's an interesting thing even if it is just for fun;-)
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