Must be my Lucky Week 13
Here are some questions bouncing around my head as we steam past the 3/4 mark of the regular season:
Can we put an end to this Patriots 3-peat talk now?
Is Detroit better or worse off after firing their head coach, and should anybody care?
Are the Texans now the NFL's equivalent of the Washington Generals? I think I saw the St Louis' field goal kicker actually blindfold himself before that game-tying kick last week. And I get this eerie feeling that somebody's whistling Sweet Georgia Brown every time Tory Holt caught a pass..
Oh well, on with the picks.
Atlanta at CAROLINA (-3)
This should worry people in Atlanta: three major professional sports teams are named after birds (I looked it up, a Thrasher is a bird), and the other is a racial epithet. With monikers like that, is it any wonder that the city is in a bit of a championship drought?
Carolina, meanhwhile, has a stubborn situation at running back and from week to week will either look like a playoff contender or a Junior Varsity team from Idaho. And they'll never tell you in advance which squad they're bringing. Remember all that praise heaped on Jake Delhomme when they made their Super Bowl run a few years back? Where are those now?
These are two very even teams, so I'm just going with home field here.
S-U: Carolina
Spread: Carolina
Final: ATL 6 CAR 24
Buffalo at MIAMI (-5.5)
Again, two even teams who surprise you each week with their ability to lose games. Buffalo has been a disaster on the road (0-4), while Miami has been almost as equally bad at home (1-3). I'm not going to pretend to understand these teams, so again I'll just go with home field advantage.
S-U: Miami
Spread: Miami
Final: BUF 23 MIA 24. Wow. Buffalo played a great 3 quarter game today.
Cincy at PITTSBURGH (-3)
Can the Bengals offense get through a tough Steelers D? I think so, especially after seeing Indy pick them apart last week. Of course, that was the Colts at home, so maybe that's not a fair comparison. The cold weather in Pennsylvania this time of year should slow down some offenses, but here's one statistic to look at: In the last two games, Cincy has scored 79 points to Pittsburgh's 20, and they played the same exact teams (Baltimore and Indy). That settles it for me.
S-U: Cincy
Spread: Cincy
Final: CIN 38 PIT 31
Dallas at NEW YORK GIANTS (-3)
All out brawl in the Meadowlands this week. Fighting for first place in the NFC East, which nobody would have thought possible three months ago. Let's just hope the Giants home crowd is able to stifle themselves during Eli Manning's cadences this week. 11 false-start penalties? That kind of early movement rivals a high school prom night.
S-U: Giants
Spread: Giants
Final: DAL 10 NYG 17
Green Bay at CHICAGO (-7)
Only 7 here? After beating a playoff team by 10? Um, OK.
S-U: Bears
Spread: Bears
Final: GB 7 CHI 19. See what I mean? 7 points was low.
Houston at BALTIMORE (-8)
It's a tempting upset pick, since Houston did show some signs of life through the first 57 minutes of last week's game. But those last three...
S-U: Baltimore
Spread: Houston
Final: HOU 15 BAL 16. That's 2 in a row for Houston, losing a lead in the last minute of the game.
JACKSONVILLE at Cleveland (+3)
It's scary for the Jaguars to lost Byron Leftwich at this point in the season, but their defense has been doing much of the talking anyway. But Leftwich had an unspoken presence, where he always seemed to be able to do just enough to win. Tough, rugged QB. Possible X-factor looming here in his replacement, David Garrard, but for this week I'm playing it safe and giving the Browns a sneaky home win.
S-U: Cleveland
Spread: Cleveland
Final: JAX 20 CLE 14. Not even the great Charlie Frye could save the Browns.
MINNESOTA at Detroit (+3)
The Vikings have been playing well of late, and another game in a dome shouldn't be any problem against Lil' Joey Harrington and a wretched Lions defense.
S-U: Vikes
Spread: Vikes
Final: MIN 21 DET 16. Seriously, are the Vikings a playoff team now? How scary is that?
TAMPA BAY "at" New Orleans (+3.5)
I don't believe in "home" field advantage for a team that doesn't have a home.
S-U: Bucs
Spread: Bucs
Final: TB 10 NO 3. Kudos to you if you bet the 'Under' in this game.
Tennessee at INDY (-16)
Now this is a spread I can bet against. It's the only fun thing about picking Colts games anymore. Just how high can they make a spread?
S-U: Indy
Spread: Titans
Final: TEN 3 IND 35. Not quite as close as I had thought it would be. Not quite.
ARIZONA at San Francisco (+3)
I almost talked myself into taking the Niners at home this week when I found this little nugget: San Fran is averaging 400 total yards given up on defense this year. Ouch. Oh, plus they're starting Alex Smith, who has been personally coached by Ryan Leaf.
S-U: Zona
Spread: Zona
Final: ARI 17 SF 10
WASHINGTON at St Louis (+3)
Will the Redskins finally win a game? Will Joe Gibbs go back to racing? Will Rocky and Bullwinkle save the world from Boris Badnoff's evil scheme? Find out when we come back.
S-U: Skins
Spread: Skins
Final: WAS 24 STL 9
DENVER at Kansas City (+1)
Spread is closer than I would have thought here. Maybe the oddsmakers bet on Ron Dayne getting more playing time. That, as any Giants fan can tell you, unfailingly leads to disaster. Sure, he'll get you one or two 55-yard runs per year, but the rest of it is uninspired dribbling.
Mike Shanahan should know better than to force the ball to him.
S-U: Denver
Spread: Denver
Final: DEN 27 KC 31. Ron Dayne was Denver's 2nd leading rusher (in carries, not in yards). Shanahan, you asshole. What did I just tell you?
New York Jets at NEW ENGLAND (-10)
This Patriots team? By 10? I don't think so, Scooter.
S-U: Pats
Spread: Jets
Final: NYJ 3 NE 16. I didn't think it was possible but the Jets are worse than I thought.
Oakland at SAN DIEGO (-11.5)
That win last week for Oakland was an abberation. The Bolts are fighting for a playoff spot now, while the Raiders are focused on their Randy Moss jersey sales pool.
S-U: San Diego
Spread: San Diego
Final: OAK 10 SD 34
Monday Night Madness
SEATTLE at Philly (+3.5)
It's too bad, at the beginning of the season this looked like it would have been a good game. Here's some things you can bet on though:
Mentions of Terrell Owens (32)
Mentions of Donovan McNabb (20)
How many times the announcers point out [Philly QB] Mike McMahon's "mobility" or "quickness" (19)
How many times they mention the Giants' false start penalties in Seattle last week (7)
Camera shots of depressed Philly cheerleaders (14)
Mentions of Shaun Alexander's contract (4)
Mentions of Philly's playoff record with TO vs without him (0)
S-U: Seattle
Spread: Seattle
Over/Under (42): Under (damn, another push)
Final: SEA 42 PHI 0
Final Tally:
This week: S-U: 14-2, Spread: 11-5
Season: S-U: 46-16, Spread: 37-24-1
posted by BJC @ 11:42 AM
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